The Intelligence Company · Physical Environment

Vis Operational weather & illumination

Seven-day ensemble hazard likelihood (82 members: NOAA GEFS 31 + ECMWF IFS 51) and computed night illumination at each conflict zone’s reference airfield or port.

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Contract v2 feed (GeoJSON) · Raw ensemble JSON
Green · No significant impact Yellow · Be aware Amber · Be prepared Red · Take action
Confidence: Moderate (Rule-based, not statistical)

Operational hazard thresholds

Each day column is a UTC day. Times show in your own time zone (the Time button changes it).

Transient hourly hazards require at least 3 hours in a UTC day (2 hours for freezing rain) so a brief shower does not colour a 24-hour operational window.

    How to read this table

    • Reference stations: Each conflict zone is anchored at a named ICAO airfield or port so forecasts reflect an operational hub and resolve objectively against archived METAR / SYNOP observations in Verdict.
    • Likelihood & impact matrix: Percentages are the share of 82 ensemble members reaching the threshold, paired with their ICD 203 verbal probability term. Stoplight colours follow the UK Met Office likelihood-by-impact matrix.
    • Tonight’s illumination: Civil and nautical twilight, lunar disc illumination at local midnight, and hours of low-light darkness (sun below −12° with the moon down or under 25% lit).